Afghan opium crop stable

The following UN report on Afghan opium production offers several facts. The Afghan opium crop provide 90 percent of the world's demand for this crop. The report refers to two reasons why opium production remains high. One is that the price of opium is higher than for alternative crops like wheat and maize. The other is that opium production is likely to operate in provinces that are "insecure." The implication of "insecure," or less secure, is that there are pressures on farmers to produce opium. The sources of such pressures would implicitly come from Taliban, warlords (among US allies), corrupt government officials, or criminal forces.

The commentary on the UN report (see below) suggests that the only effective way to reduce poppy cultivation is to make farmers secure. How? Free them from those who now control them. This would take enormous, long-term, military intervention. Subsidize prices for alternative crops and provide farmers with the means to reclaim their land for alternative cultivation. Noble goals. But this conflicts with the neoliberal approach, which favors export-oriented agriculture from large mechanized farms, and increased imports (from, say, US farmers). Interdict opium traffic routes going out of the country. Interdiction has not worked in other places (e.g., Columbia, Mexico). Similarly, eradication is a lethal way to eliminate crops defined as undesirable, and it harms the environment and drives farmers off the land.

We should also bear in mind that opium production is probably not a priority of the US. Rather, it's a distraction from other geopolitical and economic interests.

Bob

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UN predicts 'stable' 2010 Afghan opium cultivation, warns of fewer poppy-free provinces
Feb 10, 2010 00:31 EST

Source: http://wire.antiwar.com/2010/02/09/un-forecasts-stable-afghan-opium-crop

After a major drop over the past two years, Afghanistan's opium cultivation is unlikely to rise or fall dramatically in 2010, a U.N. report said Wednesday.

The report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime said bad weather may lead to a decrease in opium production but warned the country could see fewer poppy-free provinces.
Afghanistan supplies 90 percent of the world's opium, the main ingredient in heroin, and the highly lucrative crop has helped finance insurgents and fueled corruption.

"Overall, the cultivation of opium in Afghanistan is likely to remain stable in 2010 but the number of poppy-free provinces may decrease," from 20 to 17, said the report.

"However, if timely poppy eradication measures are implemented and/or drought conditions prevail, a total of 25 provinces — an increase of five compared to 2009 — could be poppy-free in 2010."

Opium cultivation in Afghanistan peaked in 2007 and then fell for two consecutive years from about 478,000 acres (193,000 hectares) to 304,000 acres (123,000 hectares) in 2009.
In September, the Vienna-based UNODC said Afghanistan was still producing 6,900 tons of opium a year, 1,900 tons more than the world consumes. In 2007, production stood at a staggering 8,200 tons.

The report, which surveyed 536 Afghan villages, found that 35 percent said they had planted opium poppy for the 2010 cultivation season and that higher sales prices compared to other crops was the predominant reason for doing so.

While the price of dry opium has fallen 6 percent compared to a year ago, the price of wheat has decreased by 43 percent, the report showed. The price of maize dropped by 38 percent over the past year.

The survey also found that 79 percent of villages with very poor security conditions grew poppy, while only 7 percent of villages unaffected by violence — or with "very good security" — did so.

"This is further proof of the overlap between high insecurity and high cultivation," UNODC chief Antonio Maria Costa said in a statement. "The message is clear: in order to further reduce the biggest source of the world's deadliest drug, there must be better security, development and governance in Afghanistan."